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When/if the impact happens, we’ll know pretty quick what we’re working with. There is no telling exactly when and how strong/southward these auroras will get. My point is, predictions are just that…predictions. Conversely, I’ve seen a few surprise storms that came out of nowhere. I’ve seen many G2+ predictions fail to live up to the hype. That said, the complexity results in an inherent element of the unknown. I don’t envy the brilliant minds tasked with predicting this stuff. Predicting the timing and intensity of these sun burps is harder. There's a chance! /avJi1Am7K4- Eric Snitil April 14, 2022Īs a fellow lover of all things space, this isn’t my first rodeo. While G2 is borderline, we're expecting mainly clear skies. A G2 storm is currently underway & any additional strengthening could put it in view locally. NORTHERN LIGHTS FORECAST NEW JERSEY FULL1) A geomagnetic storm of sufficient intensity (I generally like to see at least a G3 rating) and 2) A sky overhead that isn’t full of clouds.ĪURORA ALERT: Attention WNY skywatchers, tonight could offer at least a chance to see the northern lights. Our ability to see them locally hinges on two factors. Auroras visible in WNY are not everyday occurrences, but they do happen. Now that we’ve gotten the technicals out of the way, let’s get into the meat and potatoes as it relates to us. In terms of auroras, the bigger the storm, the farther south auroras will be able to be seen. The bigger the number, the more intense the storm. These geomagnetic storms, as we call them, are rated on a scale from 1-5 based on potency and subsequent impacts to earth. When these flares reach earth’s magnetic field, vivid auroras can dance across the poles. Storms like this have the tendency to produce auroras that dive as south as Idaho and New York State. This is one of those times, with this solar flare arriving as a result of a dead sunspot CME. Sometimes this energy doesn’t run into anything important. Sounds weird right? Our sun occasionally releases these solar burps or flares that are essentially chunks of energy that fly out into space. NORTHERN LIGHTS FORECAST NEW JERSEY SERIESIn other words, a series of “sun burps” are currently being projected toward earth. ( WROC) - High latitude sky watchers should be on the alert for auroras the evening of Thursday, April 14th with a non-zero possibility auroras could dance as far south as WNY.Īs of Thursday April 14th, a moderately strong G2-class Geomagnetic Storm remains underway. Hart said the best way to see an aurora borealis is to get away from city lights and look generally north towards the horizon.ROCHESTER, N.Y. That’s just the nature of solar activity.” “Or nothing happens, and it remains to be very minimal to a very poor show. “Things can change in the sky within a matter of minutes to hours, meaning there could be nothing out there, and then all of a sudden you happen to look out, and it’s a spectacular show,” Hart said. However, Hart warned that auroras are “finicky,” saying they are very hit and miss. Hart said the center’s forecast is predicted to be strongest on Thursday as they go by Universal Time Code, and Mountain Standard Time is seven hours behind UTC. Warning Coordination Meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Great Falls Robert Hart said the best opportunity for Montanans to see the aurora would be Wednesday evening. The center describes auroras as the only way most humans can observe space weather. Large geomagnetic storms are linked to solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which the center explains are when around a billion tons of plasma from the sun arrive at Earth with its embedded magnetic field. Montanans should be able to see lights in the evening skies this week with the Space Weather Prediction Center forecasting a strong geomagnetic storm watch for August 17 to 19.Īurora borealis, also known as polar or northern lights, can typically be seen in higher latitudes. |
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